Oscar prognostication is a year-long industry, but all that truly matters are the last few weeks before the ceremony.
That’s when the major guilds give out their own awards, and because there’s significant overlap between their membership and that of the Academy, their choices tend to be the same as well. Take the biggest prize of them all: Best Picture, which has gone to the same movie that won the Producers Guild of America Award all but three times since 2009, when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences began nominating 10 movies rather than five. Ditto the Directors Guild of America, whose top prize has gone to the eventual Best Director winner 10 out of the last 11 years. The only deviation was in 2020, when the DGA went with 1917 helmer Sam Mendes and the Oscars coronated Parasite’s Bong Joon-ho — a rare instance of the Academy crushing it.
Then there’s the Screen Actors Guild, whose awards have been a fairly reliable bellwether since their first edition in 1995. The winner for Male Actor in a Leading Role has gone on to Oscar glory 24 out of 30 times, while Female Actor is slightly less consistent at 21 out of 30. The two diverged last year, when Lily Gladstone of Killers of the Flower Moon triumphed at the SAG Awards and Emma Stone won her second Oscar for Poor Things — a common instance of the Academy biffing it.
All of which is to say that reading the awards-season tea leaves is easier than you might think, though this has admittedly been the most unpredictable year in recent memory. There are fewer locks than usual heading into Sunday’s ceremony, with awards season proving more surprising than some of the nominated films themselves, but there are also some best practices to keep in mind. Following the precursor awards remains the best way to claim a prize of your own and win your Oscar pool.
This year’s race was considered wide open until February 8, when Anora claimed frontrunner status by triumphing at both the PGA and DGA Awards on the same night. Given the overlap mentioned above, it’s now the odds-on favorite to win both Best Picture and Best Director. Sean Baker’s sex-worker fairytale does have fierce competition, though. Conclave took the top prize at the BAFTA Awards (read: British Oscars), where Brady Corbet was rightly named Best Director for The Brutalist. There’s plenty of overlap between these two bodies as well, but also a number of departures: 1917, The Power of the Dog, and All Quiet on the Western Front all won Best Picture at the BAFTAs before losing at the Oscars.
Conclave also took home Best Cast Ensemble at the SAG Awards, meaning the papal drama may well land a come-from-behind victory and claim Best Picture on Sunday night. There won’t be any white smoke when the last envelope is opened, but there could be some gasps of surprise.
Will win: Anora (both)
Could win: Conclave (Best Picture), Brady Corbet (Best Director)
Should win: The Brutalist (both)
A two-way race between Anora’s Mikey Madison and The Substance’s Demi Moore, though it’s leaning heavily in the latter’s favor. Madison won the BAFTA, while Moore picked up momentum by taking home a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award before becoming the clear frontrunner after triumphing at the Screen Actors Guild Awards this weekend. Madison winning wouldn’t be too much of an upset, but she is the underdog. The good news is that both would be excellent choices: Madison’s star-making turn suggests a bright career for the 25-year-old, whereas Moore’s resurgence has the same feel-good vibe as Brendan Fraser’s did a few years ago with The Whale.
Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance
Could win: Mikey Madison, Anora
Should win: Mikey Madison, Anora
Adrien Brody was the runaway favorite going into the weekend, having already won a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, and BAFTA for playing the title character in The Brutalist. And then Timothée Chalamet greatly complicated Brody’s path to the Oscar podium by taking home his first prize of the season at the SAG Awards on Sunday night. Chalamet had been the bridesmaid for months, with his turn as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown earning plenty of nominations but no wins. Brody’s still the favorite, but just barely.
Will win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Could win: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Should win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
It wouldn’t be awards season without major backlash against one of the nominees, and so it is this year. Emilia Pérez has borne the brunt of it this year, with its leading 13 Oscar nominations failing to shield it from (or, perhaps, prompting) a wave of negativity over its depiction of transgender people, its portrayal of Mexico, and resurfaced tweets from star Karla Sofía Gascón. That will surely be enough to sink its chances of winning Best Picture, Director, or Actress — not that it was especially likely to take home any of those regardless — but Zoe Saldaña is poised to escape unscathed. Which is as it should be: She’s electric in the role, which calls on her to sing, dance, and act in equal measure. Expect the Academy to reward her appropriately.
Will win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Could win: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Should win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
As is often the case, the one true lock this year is in the supporting category. Kieran Culkin has received nothing but rave reviews and awards to match for his performance alongside writer/director/co-star Jesse Eisenberg in A Real Pain, and is all but certain to cap his annus mirabilis with an Oscar. His trophy case includes statuettes from the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics’ Choice Association, and about 20 other critics’ organizations. The Oscar is next.
Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Could win: N/A
Should win: Yura Borisov, Anora
As you might expect, both writing awards are likely to go to the main contenders for Best Picture: Anora and Conclave. They aren’t actually competing against each other here, as Sean Baker’s Anora screenplay is in the Original category and Peter Straughan’s Conclave script, which was based on the novel of the same by Robert Harris, is in Adapted. Neither is sure to win, however. Anora could be bested by The Substance, whose awards-season success is borderline historic given how few horror movies have fared this well in the past, and Nickel Boys might upset Conclave.
Will win: Anora (Original), Conclave (Adapted)
Could win: The Substance (Original), Nickel Boys (Adapted)
Should win: The Brutalist (Original), Nickel Boys (Adapted)
Two movies are nominated in both this category and Best Picture: Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here. The former probably would have coasted to victory were it not for the Gascón affair, which unfolded at around the same time its closest competitor picked up steam. That began when leading lady Fernanda Torres won the Golden Globe and continued when she received a semi-surprising Oscar nomination alongside the movie’s Best Picture nod, both of which are uphill battles for non-English-language productions.
Despite that, Emilia Pérez looks likely to triumph here. In addition to leading all movies this year with 13 nominations, it’s already won the equivalent Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice Award. Though it wouldn't be the Academy Awards without a few twists and turns, there's a good chance the actual ceremony is less surprising than the weeks leading up to it.
Will win: Emilia Pérez
Could win: I'm Still Here
Should win: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
